BILS - 10yr To Continue Rising?
2023-06-19 03:57:00 ET
Summary
- 10yr Treasury rates are rising and lessening yield curve inversion.
- Inflation thinking is turning away from “transitory” to “longer-lasting”. The lack of response with gold, oil and commodities at the moment has confused investors.
- As inflation persists with the current path of government policy, 10yr Treasury rates could rise to the 7-8% range the next 2-3yrs.
10yr Treasury rates are rising and lessening yield curve inversion. The FRED chart is daily. This is a result of the turn witnessed two weeks ago in market psychology coming to recognize that no recession is on the horizon. The turn in market perception is reflected in the 10yr minus 3mo rate spread. Inflation thinking is turning away from “transitory” to “longer-lasting”. The lack of response with gold, oil and commodities at the moment has confused investors. I believe we should eventually see higher oil prices which has been a traditional response and higher equity prices of those firms whose consumer/industrial demand permits profitable pass-through of rising costs. In my opinion, Chart Industries ( GTLS ) remains well-placed, as do the portfolio suggestions.
I am a little surprised that this transition to industrial and related equities has not occurred earlier. However, in listening to market commentary, the often-stated theme by many is they have been confused by the translation of consensus thinking into investment strategies and prefer to simply “follow the tape”. This is the Eugene Fama “Efficient Market Hypothesis” that has a significant ‘voting machine’ contingent. This remains early cycle for underpriced issues, in my opinion.
As inflation persists with the current path of government policy, 10yr Treasury rates could rise to the 7-8% range the next 2-3yrs.
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10yr To Continue Rising?