UWM - 13 COVID-19 Predictions Coming True Sooner Than Expected - Still Bearish
On 3/10/2020, I published 13 specific predictions for how the COVID-19 pandemic would unfold. These have been my guide to fundamental analysis. I promised to update these predictions via Bayesian inference as new information became available.
In the lingo of Bayes, I am updating toward my predictions, meaning I am more confident they will come true (with two already fulfilled - NYC closed its public schools and San Francisco has implementedm widespread quarantines). This makes me incrementally more bearish about fundamentals for the companies I analyze, and thus, incrementally more bearish about the market.