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The bond market is currently a puzzle derived from an enigma influenced by an anomaly. Or is it? Here are some bullets.
Riskless overnight US government cash equivalents yield more than 2- or 5- or 7- or 10-year maturity instruments of the same credit risk. That means a market based forecast suggests that the average of all the daily rates for the next 2 or 5 or 7 or 10 years will be lower than the overnight rate is today. In other words, the "term premium" is negative. The NY Fed says the 10-year term