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As we enter the 3rd quarter of 2019, the U.S. economy is continuing its longest uninterrupted expansion since the start of records (effectively about 150 years). When things are going well, we can't help ourselves from asking when they will start getting worse. History and common sense tell us that, sooner or later, growth will stop, and there will be a recession. When, why, for how long, and how severe it will be, are unknown, and we are not arrogant or silly enough to forecast any of these things. However, it is