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In the first half of 2019, major stock indexes including the S&P 500® reached new highs, yet the outlook for global economic growth softened. Recession risk has risen, and rising tariffs have created even more uncertainty.
We believe a few themes will be important to watch in the second half of the year:
1. The U.S. stock market will balance recession risk vs. rate cuts. Recession risk is rising, but markets currently expect the Federal Reserve to keep it at bay by cutting short-term interest rates at least once