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The outlook for world trade is moving from bad to worse. Although the direct effects of the trade war are somewhat smaller than previously expected, industrial production has been considerably affected and no longer provides support. Global trade will shrink by 0.2% in 2019 and growth will only be 0.9% in 2020.
Uphill battle
Even before the escalation of the tit-for-tat trade war, we knew that 2019 will be a tough year for world trade in goods.