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The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic data to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction -- to determine if the economy has reached a "Turning Point."
My recession probability in the next 6-12 months is 25%. There is a negative feedback loop in the business sector: weaker sentiment has caused a decline in new orders for capital goods, which has lowered the average weekly hours worked of production workers along with industrial production. Bond traders have picked up on this,