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The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction -- to determine if the economy has reached a "Turning Point."
My recession probability in the next 6-12 months is 25%. There are two reasons for this.
1.) Corporate sector softness: heightened policy uncertainty has stalled capital investment projects, which has lowered demand for non-transport durable goods. This has slowed the US manufacturing sector, dropping industrial production. Manufacturers have responded by cutting the total hours