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Rates will likely remain lower for longer, as explained in "Rates: Lower for Longer." And we are wary of the distortive consequences of low rates, much of which will relate to sluggish growth caused by persistent malinvestment.
At the epicenter of this lower-for-longer environment is the transfer of wealth from creditors to debtors - such as sovereign borrowers - further penalizing savers and worsening income inequality. Since many people have missed expected life improvements from policy actions, populist movements have been able to flourish.
These movements risk nourishing destructive policies of isolation and wealth redistribution.