VGSH - A CPI Silver Lining

2024-02-13 14:20:00 ET

Summary

• Today's CPI was exactly what the market wasn't looking for. On all accounts, inflation came in higher than expected.
• Headline CPI came in at 3.1% year/year which is only just slightly above its post-COVID low of 3.0% from last June.
• Core CPI, meanwhile, fell to a new post-COVID low - technically speaking.

We get it. Today's CPI was exactly what the market wasn't looking for. On all accounts, inflation came in higher than expected. That put the nail in the coffin on a March cut and even took the chances of a May cut down to nothing much better than a coin flip. While disappointing, the trend for both headline and core CPI continues to move in the right direction. Headline CPI came in at 3.1% year/year which is only just slightly above its post-COVID low of 3.0% from last June. Core CPI, meanwhile, fell to a new post-COVID low - technically speaking. The reason we say technically is that while the reported reading of Core CPI was 3.9% y/y and unchanged from December, if stretched out to two decimal places, it fell from 3.91% down to 3.87%....

For further details see: