JEPI - A Foreboding Outlook For The U.S. Stock Market In The Decade Of The 2020s

I have in the past forecast stock market returns using a formula that is, in fact, a tautology - which Webster defines as a statement that is true by virtue of its logical form alone. That formula is shown in the following picture.

(Source: Target Date Solutions)

My challenge in the past has been estimating “P/E Expansion/Contraction.” I’ve made the mistake of forecasting contraction, reductions in the Price/Earnings ratio. But recent research by Crestmont Research provides justification for forecasting a range of P/Es in this decade.

Likely P/E Ranges

In “Macro View: A Permanent

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