VTI - AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Below Average For First Time In 11 Weeks

2023-08-17 18:38:45 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment decreased, ending a 10-week streak of above-average readings.
• Neutral sentiment increased and is above its historical average for the third time in 11 weeks.
• Bearish sentiment increased 4.6 percentage points to 30.1%.

Bullish sentiment decreased, ending its 10-week streak of above-average readings in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Both neutral and bearish sentiment increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 8.8 percentage points to 35.9%. After 10 consecutive weeks of above-average readings, optimism is below its historical average of 37.5%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 4.2 percentage points to 34.0%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the third time in 11 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 4.6 percentage points to 30.1%. At 11 consecutive weeks, this is the longest that pessimism has been below its historical average of 31.0% since a 23-week streak from February to July 2021.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 13.4 percentage points to 5.8%. This is the first time in 11 weeks that the bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5%.

This week's special questions asked AAII members how they would describe the current economy. Here are the responses:

• Strong: 13.8%.
• Mixed with areas of strength and weakness: 69.2%.
• Weak: 15.9%.
• Not sure/no opinion: 1.2%.

This week's AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 35.9%, down 8.8 percentage points.
• Neutral: 34.0%, up 4.2 percentage points.
• Bearish: 30.1%, up 4.6 percentage points.

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%.
• Neutral: 31.5%.
• Bearish: 31.0%.

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

For further details see: