VTI - AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Above Average For 10th Consecutive Week

2023-08-10 14:56:57 ET

Summary

• Optimism decreased but remains above average for the 10th consecutive week in the AAII Sentiment Survey.
• Neutral sentiment and bearish sentiment both increased.
• Bullish sentiment returned to its typical range after being unusually high last week.

Optimism decreased but remains above average for the 10th consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Both neutral sentiment and bearish sentiment increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%. This is the 10th consecutive week that bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5%. This has been the longest above-average streak since a 13-week stretch from February to May 2021. Bullish sentiment returned to its typical range this week after being unusually high last week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 0.1 percentage points to 29.8%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the eighth time in 10 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 4.2 percentage points to 25.5%. At 10 consecutive weeks, this is the longest that pessimism has been below its historical average of 31.0% since a 23-week streak from February to July 2021. After nearing an unusually low level last week, bearish sentiment is back within its typical range.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 8.5 percentage points to 19.2%. The bull-bear spread is in its typical range and remains above average for the 10th consecutive week.

This week’s special questions asked AAII members if they thought other investors were too bullish or bearish right now. Here are the responses:

• They are too bullish: 53.2%
• Their sentiment toward the market is about right: 20.8%
• They are too bearish: 16.4%
• No opinion/not sure: 9.6%

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points
• Neutral: 29.8%, up 0.1 percentage points
• Bearish: 25.5%, up 4.2 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 31.0%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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