VTI - AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Above Average For 2 Consecutive Weeks

2023-06-15 17:58:07 ET

Summary

• Optimism increased and remains above average for the second consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
• Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 1.0 percentage points to 32.1%.
• Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 1.6 percentage points to 22.7%.

Optimism slightly increased and remains above average for the second consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment increased, while bearish sentiment decreased to its lowest level since July 2021.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 0.6 percentage points to 45.2%. This puts optimism above its historical average of 37.5% for the second consecutive week. Bullish sentiment was last higher on November 11, 2021 (48.0%).

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 1.0 percentage points to 32.1%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the fifth time out of the past 24 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 1.6 percentage points to 22.7%. Bearish sentiment was last lower on July 1, 2021 (22.2%).

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased to 22.5%, up 2.2 percentage points. The bull-bear spread is at its highest level since November 11, 2021 (24.0%).

This week's special question asked AAII members which factor is most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks. Here are the responses:

• Corporate earnings: 12.9%
• The economy and/or inflation: 41.3%
• Monetary policy/interest rates: 21.5%
• The rebound in the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq composite: 17.6%
• Other: 6.5%

This week's AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 45.2%, up 0.6 percentage points
• Neutral: 32.1%, up 1.0 percentage points
• Bearish: 22.7%, down 1.6% percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 31.0%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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