VTI - AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Above Average For First Time Since February

2023-06-08 18:50:54 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment increased to 44.5% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, above its historical average for the first time since February 2023.
• Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 3.0 percentage points to 31.2%.
• Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, plunged 12.5 percentage points to 24.3%.

Optimism shot up and is above average for the first time since February 2023 in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment decreased, while bearish sentiment plunged below average after a 15-week streak of above-average readings.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 15.5 percentage points to 44.5%. This puts optimism above its historical average of 37.5% for the first time since February 2023. Bullish sentiment was last higher on November 11, 2021 (48.0%).

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 3.0 percentage points to 31.2%. Neutral sentiment is below the historical average of 31.5% for the fourth time out of the past 23 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, plunged 12.5 percentage points to 24.3%. After a 15-week streak of above-average readings, bearish sentiment fell to its lowest level since November 11, 2021 (24.0%).

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) rose to 20.2%, up 28.0 percentage points. The bull-bear spread is at its highest level since November 11, 2021 (24.0%).

This week’s special question asked AAII members what their perception is of the current state of the housing market. Here are the responses:

• Strong: 16.3%
• Mixed: 55.2%
• Weak: 22.9%
• Not sure/No opinion: 5.2%

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 44.5%, up 15.5 percentage points
• Neutral: 31.2%, down 3.0 percentage points
• Bearish: 24.3%, down 12.5 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 31.0%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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