VOO - AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Above Average For Fourth Consecutive Week

2023-06-29 16:05:23 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 0.9 percentage points to 41.9%.
• Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 1.2 percentage points to 30.6%.
• Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 0.3 percentage points to 27.5%.

Optimism decreased but remains above average for the fourth consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment increased, while pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 0.9 percentage points to 41.9%. This keeps optimism above its historical average of 37.5% for the fourth consecutive week. This has been the longest above-average streak since a five-week streak in October and November 2021.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 1.2 percentage points to 30.6%. After hitting a six-week low last week, neutral sentiment is closer to its 31.5% historical average but remains below average.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 0.3 percentage points to 27.5%. At four consecutive weeks, this is the longest streak that pessimism has been below 30% since a five-week streak in October and November 2021.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 0.6 percentage points to 14.5%. The bull-bear spread has been above its historical average of 6.4% for four consecutive weeks.

This week's special question asked AAII members how they would describe the current valuation of stocks. Here are the responses:

• Valuations are mixed, with some stocks expensive and others cheap: 44.1%.
• Stocks, in general, are overvalued: 29.3%.
• Stocks, in general, are fairly valued: 14.0%.
• Stocks, in general, are undervalued: 8.6%.
• Not sure/no opinion: 3.5%.

This week's AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 41.9%, down 0.9 percentage points.
• Neutral: 30.6%, up 1.2 percentage points.
• Bearish: 27.5%, down 0.3 percentage points.

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%.
• Neutral: 31.5%.
• Bearish: 31.0%.

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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