VTI - AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Above Average For Third Consecutive Week

2023-06-23 01:05:59 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey decreased 2.3 percentage points to 42.9%, remaining above its historical average for the third consecutive week.
• Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 2.7 percentage points to 29.4%.
• Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 5.1 percentage points to 27.8%.

Optimism slightly decreased but remains above average for the third consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment decreased, while bearish sentiment increased from its lowest level since July 2021 last week.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 2.3 percentage points to 42.9%. This puts optimism above its historical average of 37.5% for the third consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 2.7 percentage points to 29.4%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% and is at a six-week low.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 5.1 percentage points to 27.8%. At three consecutive weeks, this is the longest streak that pessimism has been below 30% since a five-week streak in October and November 2021.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased to 15.1%, down 7.4 percentage points. The bull-bear spread has been above its historical average of 6.4% for three consecutive weeks.

This week's special question asked AAII members what they thought about the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate hikes. Here are the responses:

• Pausing was the right decision: 67.7%
• They should have raised interest rates: 24.5%
• They should have cut interest rates: 2.5%
• Not sure/no opinion: 5.1%

This week's AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 42.9%, down 2.3 percentage points
• Neutral: 29.4%, down 2.7 percentage points
• Bearish: 27.8%, up 5.1 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 31.0%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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