VTI - AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Below Average For 14th Consecutive Week

2023-05-18 16:16:01 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 6.5 percentage points to 22.9%.
• Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 8.0 percentage points to 37.4%.
• Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 1.5 percentage points to 39.7%.

Optimism decreased and is at a seven-week low in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment increased, while bearish sentiment decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 6.5 percentage points to 22.9%. Optimism reverted to an unusually low level and is at a seven-week low. Bullish sentiment is unusually low for the 51st time out of the past 72 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 8.0 percentage points to 37.4%. This puts neutral sentiment above its historical average of 31.5% for the first time in three weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 1.5 percentage points to 39.7%. Pessimism is back within its historical range after two consecutive weeks at unusually high levels. Bearish sentiment remains above its historical average of 31.0% for the 73rd time out of the past 78 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) dropped to –16.8% and remains unusually low for the fourth consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what impact the current standoff over raising the debt ceiling has on their sentiment toward stocks. Here are the responses:

• A significantly negative impact: 18.8%
• Some impact, but not significantly negative: 24.4%
• Believe it could lead to buying opportunities: 23.9%
• No impact on my sentiment: 27.8%
• Not sure/no opinion: 5.1%

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 22.9%, down 6.5 percentage points
• Neutral: 37.4%, up 8.0 percentage points
• Bearish: 39.7%, down 1.5 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 31.0%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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