VTI - AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Continues To Be Unusually Low

2023-11-02 14:47:11 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment decreased 5.0 percentage points to 24.3%.
• Neutral sentiment fell 2.1 percentage points to 25.4%.
• Bearish sentiment increased 7.1 percentage points to 50.3%.

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks continued its decline in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, pessimism increased and remains unusually high.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 5.0 percentage points to 24.3%. Optimism is unusually low for the second consecutive week and is below its historical average of 37.5% for the seventh time in eight weeks. Bullish sentiment was last lower on May 18, 2023 (22.9%).

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 2.1 percentage points to 25.4%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the sixth time in nine weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 7.1 percentage points to 50.3%. Pessimism remains at an unusually high level for the second consecutive week and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the seventh time in nine weeks. Bearish sentiment was last higher on December 22, 2022 (52.3%).

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 12.1 percentage points to –26.0%. The bull-bear spread remains below its historical average of 6.4% for the eighth time in nine weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what their six-month outlook is for bond yields. Here are the responses:

• They will rise: 30.4%
• They will be about the same: 43.5%
• They will be lower: 16.1%
• Not sure: 4.7%
• No opinion: 4.7%

This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 24.3%, down 5.0 percentage points
• Neutral: 25.4%, down 2.1 percentage points
• Bearish: 50.3%, up 7.1 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 31.0%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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