VTI - AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Continues To Rise

2023-11-17 00:08:15 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment increased 1.2 percentage points to 43.8%.
• Neutral sentiment decreased 2.1 percentage points to 28.1%.
• Bearish sentiment increased 0.9 percentage points to 28.1%.

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks continued to rise in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, pessimism slightly increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 1.2 percentage points to 43.8%. Optimism is above its historical average of 37.5% for the fourth time in 14 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 2.1 percentage points to 28.1%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the eighth time in 11 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 0.9 percentage points to 28.1%. Pessimism is below its historical average of 31.0% for the fourth time in 11 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 0.3 percentage points to 15.7%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.4% for the third time in 11 weeks.

This week's special question asked AAII members what their perception was of third-quarter earnings. Here are the responses:

• They approximately matched my expectations: 47.5%
• They were better than I expected: 29.3%
• They were worse than I expected: 6.0%
• Not sure/No opinion: 17.0%

This week's Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 43.8%, up 1.2 percentage points
• Neutral: 28.1%, down 2.1 percentage points
• Bearish: 28.1%, up 0.9 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 31.0%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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