VTI - AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Continues To Rise; Pessimism Reaches Lowest Level Since 2018

2023-11-30 16:11:59 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment increased 3.5 percentage points to 48.8%.
• Neutral sentiment increased 0.6 percentage points to 31.7%.
• Bearish sentiment decreased 4.1 percentage points to 19.6%.

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks continued to rise in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, pessimism decreased to its lowest level in almost six years. Both types of readings have historically been followed by below-average and below-median six-month returns for the S&P 500 index.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 3.5 percentage points to 48.8%. Optimism is unusually high and is above its historical average of 37.5% for the fourth consecutive week and the fifth time in eight weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 0.6 percentage points to 31.7%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the first time in nine weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 4.1 percentage points to 19.6%. Pessimism is unusually low, at its lowest level since January 3, 2018 (15.6%), and is below its historical average of 31.0% for the fourth time in 11 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 7.5 percentage points to 29.2%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the fourth time in eight weeks.

Over the holiday week, we asked AAII members what their favorite thing was to eat on Thanksgiving. Turkey was the most popular, followed by stuffing and desserts.

This week's special question asked AAII members how they think the average consumer is faring relative to one year ago.

Here is how they responded:

• They are faring worse: 51.6%.
• They are faring about the same: 24.9%.
• They are faring better: 19.3%.
• Not sure/No opinion: 4.2%.

This week's Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 48.8%, up 3.5 percentage points.
• Neutral: 31.7%, up 0.6 percentage points.
• Bearish: 19.6%, down 4.1 percentage points.

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%.
• Neutral: 31.5%.
• Bearish: 31.0%.

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

For further details see: