VTI - AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Dips And Pessimism Surges Returning To Typical Ranges

2023-12-07 16:59:19 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment decreased 1.4 percentage points to 47.3%.
• Neutral sentiment decreased 6.4 percentage points to 25.3%.
• Bearish sentiment increased 7.9 percentage points to 27.4%.

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks fell for the first time in five weeks in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, pessimism rebounded from its lowest level in almost six years. Both readings have returned to their respective typical ranges.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 1.4 percentage points to 47.3%. Optimism is above its historical average of 37.5% for the fifth consecutive week and the sixth time in nine weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 6.4 percentage points to 25.3%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the ninth time in 10 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 7.9 percentage points to 27.4%. Pessimism is below its historical average of 31.0% for the fifth consecutive week and the fifth time in 12 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 9.3 percentage points to 19.9%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the fifth time in nine weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members if they think other investors are too bullish or bearish right now.

Here is how they responded:

• They are too bullish: 48.6%
• They are too bearish: 12.5%
• Their sentiment toward the market is about right: 27.4%
• Not sure/No opinion: 11.3%

This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 47.3%, down 1.4 percentage points
• Neutral: 25.3%, down 6.4 percentage points
• Bearish: 27.4%, up 7.9 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 31.0%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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