VTI - AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Rises

2023-10-12 18:29:31 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment rose 9.9 percentage points to 40.0%.
• Neutral sentiment fell 4.8 percentage points to 23.5%.
• Bearish sentiment fell 5.1 percentage points to 36.5%.

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks rose to its highest level in five weeks in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, pessimism fell but remained above average.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 9.9 percentage points to 40.0%. Optimism was last higher on September 7, 2023 (42.2%). Optimism is above its historical average of 37.5% for the second time in six weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 4.8 percentage points to 23.5%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the third time in nine weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 5.1 percentage points to 36.5%. Pessimism is above its historical average of 31.0% for the sixth time in eight weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) skyrocketed 15.0 percentage points to 3.5%. Even with the jump, the bull-bear spread remains below its historical average of 6.5% for the fifth time in six weeks.

This week's special question asked AAII members what impact the rise in bond yields has had on their shorter-term outlook for stocks. Here are their responses:

• Made me more cautious/bearish: 29.6%.
• I'm considering rotating, at least partially, out of stocks and into higher-yielding alternatives: 26.6%.
• Made more me optimistic/willing to look for potential bargains among stocks: 13.3%.
• No impact: 27.2%.
• Other/no opinion: 3.0%.

This week's Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 40.0%, up 9.9 percentage points.
• Neutral: 23.5%, down 4.8 percentage points.
• Bearish: 36.5%, down 5.1 percentage points.

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%.
• Neutral: 31.5%.
• Bearish: 31.0%.

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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