VTI - AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Stays Flat

2024-01-11 14:21:58 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment was unchanged at 48.6%.
• Neutral sentiment decreased 0.7 percentage points to 27.2%.
• Bearish sentiment increased 0.7 percentage points to 24.2%.

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks was flat in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, pessimism slightly increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, was unchanged at 48.6%. Optimism is still at an unusually high level. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 10th consecutive week and the 11th time in 14 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 0.7 percentage points to 27.2%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the sixth consecutive week and the 14th time in 15 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 0.7 percentage points to 24.2%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the 10th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 0.6 percentage points to 24.4%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 10th consecutive week and the 11th time in 22 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members which asset class will realize the highest returns over the next five years.

Here is how they responded:

• Stocks: 81.8%
• Bonds: 5.6%
• Precious metals: 5.6%
• Cash: 1.1%
• Other/not sure: 5.9%

This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 48.6%, no change
• Neutral: 27.2%, down 0.7 percentage points
• Bearish: 24.2%, up 0.7 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 31.0%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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