QQQ - AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Is Above Average For 12th Consecutive Week

2023-05-11 16:51:13 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 5.3 percentage points to 29.4%.
• Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 1.6 percentage points to 29.4%.
• Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 3.7 percentage points to 41.2%.

Pessimism among individual investors stayed above average for the 12th consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment decreased, while bullish sentiment increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 5.3 percentage points to 29.4%. Optimism continues to be at a low level but is no longer unusually low. Bullish sentiment is still below its historical average of 37.5% for the 75th time in the past 77 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 1.6 percentage points to 29.4%. This keeps neutral sentiment below its historical average of 31.5% for just the third time in 19 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 3.7 percentage points to 41.2%. Pessimism remains above its historical average of 31.0% for the 72nd time out of the past 77 weeks. Bearish sentiment is also unusually high for the second consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) improved to -11.8% but remains unusually low for the third consecutive week.

This week's special question asked AAII members what the Federal Reserve should do about interest rates at its next meeting in June. Here are the responses:

• Continue to raise interest rates: 17.9%.
• Keep interest rates unchanged: 64.1%.
• Lower interest rates: 5.6%.
• Not sure/no opinion: 12.4%.

This week's AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 29.4%, up 5.3 percentage points.
• Neutral: 29.4%, down 1.6 percentage points.
• Bearish: 41.2%, down 3.7 percentage points.

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%.
• Neutral: 31.5%.
• Bearish: 31.0%.

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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