VTI - AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Remains Above Average For 10th Consecutive Week

2023-04-27 17:09:01 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 24.1%.
• Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, declined by 0.3 percentage points to 37.4%.
• Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 3.4 percentage points to 38.5%.

Pessimism among individual investors stayed above average for the 10th consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment and optimism both decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 24.1%. Optimism is unusually low for the 49th time out of the past 69 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, declined by 0.3 percentage points to 37.4%. Neutral sentiment continues to be above its historical average for the 16th time out of the past 17 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 3.4 percentage points to 38.5%. Although bearish sentiment was recently reverting closer to its historical average, it is now approaching an unusually high level again. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 70th time out of the past 75 weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 6.5 percentage points to -14.4%. The bull-bear spread is at an unusually low level for the seventh week out of the last 10 weeks.

Market volatility continues to be a concern for individual investors.

This week's special question asked AAII members if they think investors are too bullish or bearish right now. Here are their responses:

• They are too bullish: 30.4%
• They are too bearish: 30.4%
• Their sentiment toward the market is about right: 18.6%
• No opinion/Not sure: 20.6%

This week's AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 24.1%, down 3.1 percentage points
• Neutral: 37.4%, down 0.3 percentage points
• Bearish: 38.5%, up 3.4 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 31.0%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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