ATVI - Activision may have downside to $71 a share if FTC sues to block Microsoft deal - survey

Activision Blizzard ( NASDAQ: ATVI ) shares have limited downside in a potential Federal Trade Commission lawsuit that seeks to block Microsoft's ( NASDAQ: MSFT ) $69 billion purchase of the videogame maker.

Activision ( ATVI ) shares may drop to $71 a share in a possible suit, according to a Seeking Alpha survey of 14 analysts and traders that follow mergers and acquisitions. The fall to $71 would represent a ~5% decline from its current price. The survey respondents all expect that Microsoft ( MSFT ) will fight in court if the deal is blocked.

The survey comes as the Federal Trade Commission is scheduled to hold a closed door meeting at 11am on Thursday that the New York Post has reported concerns the Activision/Microsoft deal. The report said there's an outside chance that FTC commissioners may vote on the transaction.

It couldn't be independently verified if the FTC meeting is about the Activision ( ATVI ) deal as often these closed-door meetings  concern private companies or other matters.

Microsoft ( MSFT ) in recent days has been trying to convince antitrust regulators to approve the deal and MSFT President Brad Smith reportedly met with three Democratic members of th e FTC on Wednesday to plead his case. Smith on Monday also penned a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece, where he confirmed that Microsoft ( MSFT ) was offering rival Sony ( SONY ) a 10-year guarantee for same-day Call of Duty release.

A Dealreporter item on Wednesday said the Microsoft offer to Sony is unlikely to be accepted. Sony ( SONY ) is said to be "nowhere near" concluding any agreement with Microsoft ( MSFT ).

Microsoft ( MSFT ) is preparing to go to court in the event the FTC does file a suit, Bloomberg reported on Friday. The U.S. is not the only jurisdiction where MSFT may have to fight for the $95 a share Activision deal as the transaction is also seeing in-depth reviews in Europe and the U.K.

Investors may have a clue into the potential downside in an FTC lawsuit after Politico late last month reported that the antitrust authority was likely to sue to block the mega-deal. Activision shares fell 4% percent on November 25 in the wake of the Politico item.

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