PARAA - After a lull TV ratings back on the slide UBS notes

2023-04-21 15:19:47 ET

They had a slight reprieve during the 2022 midterm election and always-strong NFL season wrap-up -- but TV ratings have resumed an accelerated decline, UBS says in a new update on viewership figures.

First-quarter TV ratings fell 10%, a steeper decline than the 6.2% drop in the fourth quarter, analyst John Hodulik noted, and Q2 so far has shown only slight moderation: a decline of 8.5%, still near all-time highs.

Moreover, there was a steeper decline in the commercially important viewing demographic of adults 18-49, he said: a drop of 17% in the first quarter, vs. Q4's 12% drop. That demographic now makes up just 21% of traditional TV viewing, down from about 28% in early 2020.

The biggest trend change occurred for cable news, which fell off 16% in the first quarter -- but that absorbs some tough comparisons vs. early coverage of war in Ukraine, Hodulik pointed out.

But a secular movement toward streaming moves on: Entertainment-focused networks fell 16% in Q1, vs. a 13% drop in Q4, and children's networks fell 27%, vs. a drop of 29% in Q4.

Digging into what the figures mean for network groups in C3 viewership (those who actually watch commercials): Disney's ( NYSE: DIS ) cable nets did best, he noted, with ratings dropping just 5% (and only 2% at ESPN).

Other network groups fared far worse in the first quarter. Fox's channels ( NASDAQ: FOX ) ( FOXA ) dropped 22%, vs. a 4% drop in Q4, though that was largely driven by a 35% drop-off in Fox News, thanks in part to the aforementioned comparisons with Ukraine war coverage.

Warner Bros. Discovery ( NASDAQ: WBD ) also saw its declines worsen: down 26% in Q1, vs. a 22% drop in Q4. And it's pacing down 28% so far in Q2, though likely to get a boost before long from the NBA playoffs and Stanley Cup Finals rotation. Paramount ( NASDAQ: PARA ) ( PARAA ) networks dropped 22% in Q1, vs. an 18% fall in Q4, and AMC Networks ( AMCX ) fell off 20% in Q1, vs. a 17% drop in Q4.

NBCUniversal ( CMCSA ) also stood out with its networks showing a slight improvement: falling just 11% in Q1, vs. a 13% drop in Q4.

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