ADC - Agree Realty: Technical Rebound And Financial Growth Signal Strong Buy

2023-11-07 03:17:03 ET

Summary

• Agree Realty Corporation reports strong financial results for Q3 2023, demonstrating growth in key metrics despite economic challenges.
• The company invests heavily in high-quality retail net lease properties and completes multiple development projects, reinforcing the strength of its portfolio.
• The appearance of a bullish hammer in the stock price underscores the price resilience at critical levels.

Agree Realty Corporation ( ADC ) has demonstrated a period of significant investment and development, channeling resources into a substantial number of retail net lease properties and completing several projects through its Developer Funding Platform ((DFP)). Despite a dip in net income per share, the company's financial health is underscored by growth in its core operational metrics, as well as a notable increase in its monthly dividend payout to shareholders. ADC's strategic financial decisions, including the closing of a substantial term loan and the successful sale of shares through its at-the-market equity program, reflect its proactive approach to capital management and growth during a challenging economic phase. This piece examines the financial and technical performance of Agree Realty Corporation's stock to discern forthcoming trends and potential investment opportunities. Notably, the stock value appears to be recovering from a robust support level with indications of potential upward momentum.

Key Financial Metrics Growth Amid Economic Headwinds

Agree Realty Corporation reported strong financial results for Q3 2023, highlighting growth in several critical metrics despite a challenging economic environment. Investment activities were robust during the quarter, with approximately $411 million invested in 98 retail net lease properties and completing eight development or DFP projects. This substantial investment activity led to a milestone in the company's portfolio quality, with investment-grade exposure reaching nearly 69% of annualized base rents.

Financially, the company saw a mixed performance in net income per share, which decreased by 12.4% to $0.41 compared to Q3 2022. Despite this decrease in net income per share, the total net income grew by 5.6% to $39.7 million, suggesting that the decline per share might be partially due to an increased number of shares outstanding. The sale and settlement of shares corroborate this through the at-the-market equity program, which brought significant net proceeds. Additionally, the chart provided illustrates sustained profit over the long term, showcasing an annual net income of $152.44 million for 2022. Given the upward trend in quarterly net income for 2023, it is anticipated that the total net income for the year will be robustly positive, highlighting the company's profitable performance.

Nevertheless, when examining the Core FFO and AFFO metrics, essential indicators of a REIT's operational performance, a notable increase became evident. Core FFO per share rose by 2.1%, and AFFO per share grew by 4.2% for the quarter, demonstrating the company's ability to generate solid operational cash flow. This performance continued the trend observed over the nine months, with respective increases of 0.8% and 2.3% in Core FFO and AFFO per share.

Agree Realty Corporation also continued sharing profits with stockholders, declaring and increasing monthly cash dividends. This increase shows management's confidence in the company's financial stability and future outlook. The dividend distribution corresponds to roughly 74% of the Core FFO and 73% of the AFFO per share, signifying a robust and maintainable payout ratio for the foreseeable future.

The portfolio update showed a nearly fully leased array of properties, maintaining a high occupancy rate of 99.7% and a weighted average lease term of 8.6 years. The ground lease portfolio, representing 11.6% of annualized base rents, also remained fully occupied and consisted of leases with a longer weighted average term of 10.8 years.

During Q3 2023, $398.3 million was spent on acquiring 74 properties across 28 states, with tenants in 23 sectors, such as auto parts and dollar stores, boasting a healthy weighted-average capitalization rate of 6.9% and an 11.5-year lease term. Most of the properties' annualized base rents, at 72.5%, are sourced from investment-grade retail tenants. For the first nine months of 2023, the acquisition volume reached around $1.01 billion, encompassing 232 properties across 37 states and leased to tenants in 25 retail sectors. These acquisitions maintained a similar profile, with a weighted average capitalization rate of 6.8%, an 11.5-year average lease term, and 73.3% annualized base rents from investment-grade retail tenants. In terms of development, the company has been actively managing a portfolio of projects with significant committed capital, indicating a forward-looking approach to growth and portfolio enhancement.

In summary, Agree Realty Corporation's Q3 2023 financial performance has shown resilience and strategic growth, with increased investment in quality retail net lease properties and a substantial increase in its core financial operating metrics. The company's balanced approach to development, acquisitions, dispositions, and capital management positions it well for future growth and stability in the real estate market.

Decoding Strong Bullish Movements in the Market

Given that the underlying fundamentals exhibit a robust bullish trend, the technical perspective remains optimistic, as is evident from the monthly chart below. This chart illustrates the enduring upward trajectory from the 2008 low of $3.61 to the record peak of $76.15. It's noted that every retracement in Agree Realty Corporation's share price to the persistent trendline has been met with a strong price surge from these pivots.

This substantial price surge after the 2008 financial crisis was due to a combination of strategic portfolio expansion and the broader recovery of the real estate market. As the economy rebounded from the Great Recession, consumer confidence and spending gradually increased, translating into greater demand for retail spaces. Agree Realty Corporation capitalized on this trend by focusing on high-credit-quality tenants, which provided stable rental incomes and reduced the risk of default. Moreover, the company benefitted from a low-interest-rate environment, which reduced borrowing costs for property acquisitions and development, enhancing profitability and investor appeal. As a result, Agree Realty Corporation's consistent dividend payouts and growth in FFO drew the attention of income-focused investors, pushing the stock to new highs.

The rally was further strengthened post-2015, after producing a low at $19.70, as the company successfully adapted to the shifting retail landscape characterized by the rise of e-commerce. By focusing on tenants that were e-commerce resistant—such as auto parts stores, convenience stores, and pharmacies—Agree Realty insulated itself from the broader challenges faced by the retail sector. Additionally, the company expanded its geographic footprint and diversified its tenant base, which spread its risk and increased the resiliency of its revenue streams. This period also saw a pronounced trend toward REITs as investors sought stable yields in a persistently low-interest-rate environment. Strategic asset management, strong sector positioning, and an investment climate favoring real estate assets with steady dividends contributed to the strong rally in Agree Realty Corporation's stock into 2022.

However, the stock price of Agree Realty Corporation peaked at $76.15 and experienced a drop after August 2022, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation. As interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing increases, which puts pressure on REITs that typically rely on debt for property acquisitions and development. Furthermore, higher rates often lead to a shift in investor preference, as bonds and other fixed-income securities become more attractive relative to dividend-yielding stocks like REITs. Agree Realty, with its portfolio of retail properties, also faced headwinds from the economic uncertainty impacting consumer spending and the retail sector.

The decline observed post-2022 has encountered the robust support level established by the ascending broadening wedge pattern that began forming in 2016 and has persisted into 2023. Additionally, an analysis using the Fibonacci retracement, drawn from the 2008 bottom to the record highs, reveals that the recent downturn has approached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement mark at $48.44. Despite this, the most recent low recorded was $52.69. Yet, the significant rebound that formed the bullish hammer candlestick in October 2023 at this vital support zone suggests that the market may have found its footing, setting the stage for potential upward momentum. For investors with a long-term investment horizon, the key support levels to monitor are the 38.2% and the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, with the price range extending from $48.44 to $39.88, representing a compelling entry point for buyers.

Strategies for Investors

To gain a deeper insight into the optimistic long-term perspective discussed above, the ascending broadening wedge pattern is more pronounced in the weekly chart below. Prices are rebounding from the solid base established by the ascending broadening wedge, leading to the formation of a significant bullish hammer candlestick on the weekly chart. This bullish hammer is particularly noteworthy as it formed at oversold conditions, evidenced by the RSI indicator.

For a more detailed examination of this notable recovery evident in the weekly chart, the daily chart below illustrates a decisive key reversal, signaling a solid turnaround from an oversold state. The convergence of bullish indicators across the monthly and daily charts suggests a continued upward trajectory.

Investors seeking to capitalize on the potential rally in Agree Realty Corporation could consider establishing long positions at the current levels, with an opportunity to scale up investments if prices pull back within the $48.44 to $39.88 range. Should the price breach the $76.16 mark, a robust increase in value is anticipated, presenting a favorable outlook for further investment.

Market Risks

The prospect of escalating interest rates casts a significant shadow, with the potential to erode profit margins and impede fresh investments in property due to increased borrowing expenses. This interest rate risk is compounded by broader economic uncertainty; a downturn could impact consumer spending and affect the revenue streams from tenants, potentially leading to higher vacancy rates and decreased rental income. Furthermore, the concentration of tenants in specific retail sectors could pose risks if industry-specific downturns occur, exacerbated by shifts like the growing preference for online shopping.

The company's portfolio and operations are not insulated from market volatility and competition. Fluctuating property values could lead to capital losses, and liquidity risks may arise if assets need to be liquidated quickly. Regulatory and tax frameworks, always subject to change, present another layer of risk that could impact Agree Realty Corporation's business model. Development projects frequently encounter operational challenges, including exceeding budgets and facing regulatory obstacles. Additionally, unforeseen repercussions on the company's performance and asset values may arise from geopolitical incidents, environmental shifts, and risks related to climate change.

From a technical perspective, the stock price finds a support level at $39.88, as indicated by the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Should the stock close below this threshold monthly, it could undermine the long-term upward trend and potentially trigger a further decrease in its price.

Bottom Line

In conclusion, Agree Realty Corporation's performance in Q3 2023 is a testament to the company's robust financial health and adept navigation through economic uncertainties. The firm's strategic investments in quality retail net lease properties and its focus on maintaining a diversified and high-occupancy portfolio have laid the groundwork for sustained operational success. Expanding critical financial indicators, like Core FFO and AFFO per share, exemplifies this success.

The tactical foresight of the company is evident from its strategic acquisitions, development projects, and the maintenance of a well-judged payout ratio, which indicates a prudent yet confident approach to growth and shareholder returns. The technical analysis also points towards an optimistic future for the company's share value, with a resilient recovery pattern and potential for upward momentum highlighted by crucial support levels and bullish candlestick formations. The appearance of a bullish hammer within the ascending broadening wedge suggests the formation of a robust bottom, signaling the potential for an uptrend in prices. Investors may consider buying positions at the current price and accumulate additional positions if the price drops within the price range of $48.44 to $39.88.

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