AKBA - Akebia Therapeutics: Finally Showing Potential, But Wait For Q2 Earnings Before Buying

2025-06-04 16:23:13 ET

Summary

• Vafseo's strong US launch and outperforming Q1 revenues signal robust demand and even potential for eventual blockbuster status, but near-term profitability remains uncertain.
• Auryxia's patent expiry and declining sales will pressure Akebia's financials, making Vafseo's adoption and expansion into non-dialysis markets crucial.
• The VALOR Phase 3 study in non-dialysis CKD patients is a key catalyst, but approval and significant revenue are at least 2-3 years away.
• Given recent share price gains and upcoming Q2 results, I recommend a 'wait and see' approach to assess sustained momentum before investing.

Investment Overview

I first covered Akebia Therapeutics ( AKBA ) in a note for Seeking Alpha entitled "Vadadustat Approval Seems Make Or Break" all the way back in November 2019....

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