ACTV - Alpinum Investment Management AG Q3 2024 Investment Letter

2024-07-03 08:15:00 ET

Summary

• Alpinum Investment Management is a Swiss asset manager whose key areas of expertise include. traditional and alternative credit investments, direct lending and hedge funds.
• The global economy is demonstrating resilience, especially for the US, China and emerging markets.
• The risk of a global recession has diminished, with emerging markets outperforming advanced economies.
• Equity markets hit new highs in Q2 2024, bolstered by strong economic fundamentals and growing investor confidence.
• Persistently high inflation led to diminished expectations for a significant Fed easing cycle, with markets now anticipating one to two rate cuts in 2024.

Continued economic resilience

The global economy is proving resilient, as shown by IMF's upward revisions to growth forecasts for 2024, particularly in the US, China and emerging markets ('EM'). This positive development is due to the reduced impact of the recent crises, supported by fiscal programs and moderate impact of monetary policy. The risk of a global recession has decreased, with EM faring relatively better than advanced economies. Inflation remains a concern, prompting central banks to pursue a vigilant policy. The Fed is expected to be patient, while the ECB moved faster. EM central banks should continue their easing cycles to combat inflation....

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