XLE - Amid story resets and diverse opinions J.P. Morgan walks middle ground on refiners' return to normal

Refiners have taken the punishment from COVID-19: Despite a rebound along with other areas in the past week following positive vaccine news, they're doing worst among coronavirus-impacted sectors, J.P. Morgan says. Year-to-date, refiners are down 52% and the Energy Select SPDR (XLE) is down 39% vs. an S&P 500 up 12%. And investors are picking a lane as far as determining what's next: "(a) whether the shale-induced crude oil differential profit joyride is over and the EV revolution is upon us to (b) whether capacity closures and a vaccine will allow margins to normalize and drive continued share price upside against the backdrop of a value rotational trade." The real answer is somewhere in the middle, analyst Phil Gresh and team conclude. The fourth quarter and Q1 of 2021 aren't likely to be much better than the middle of 2020, with mobility, demand for refined product and crude differentials all

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Amid story resets and diverse opinions, J.P. Morgan walks middle ground on refiners' return to normal