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Earlier this year, I penned a research note detailing a data-driven approach to measuring recession risk. You can read that note from February by clicking here.
In that note, which you should read prior to this note if you have not done so, I outline the official definition of a recession, how I built a coincident indicator of the economy, a quick overview of the three-time durations I study and more.
I concluded that note by suggesting a recession was not yet in the cards but