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We appear to be seeing a rebound in shelter inflation and a decline in non-shelter inflation. The inverted yield curve, stabilizing home prices, declining residential investment, and a peak in existing and new home sales all suggest parallels to 2006. This is now three consecutive months with core non-shelter deflation (Caveat: There were some parallels to 2006 two years ago, too, so follow my logic with a grain of salt).
As in 2006, these conditions are generally related to marginally contractionary monetary policy. In 2006 and 2007, consumption was able to continue growing in spite