BNO - April Non-OPEC And World Oil Production Drops
2023-08-11 18:14:00 ET
Summary
- Non-OPEC oil production dropped in April, with the largest decreases coming from Canada, the US, and Russia.
- Using data from the August 2023 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period May 2023 to December 2024.
- Much of Brazil’s upcoming 2023 production growth of close to 100 kb/d will come from the highly productive pre-salt fields.
A guest post by Ovi
Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to April 2023. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country-specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short-term outlook for future output and direction for a few of these countries and the world. The US report has an expanded view beyond production by adding rig and frac spread charts.
Where STEO data was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated . The average for the last six months was used to project the May and June production numbers in a few cases.
World oil production and projection charts are presented at the end of this post.
April Non-OPEC oil production dropped by 407 kb/d to 51,049 kb/d. The largest decreases came from Canada, US and Russia.
Using data from the August 2023 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period May 2023 to December 2024. (Red graph). Output is expected to reach 53,195 kb/d in December 2024, which is 787 kb/d higher than the December 2019 peak of 52,408 kb/d.
From May 2023 to December 2024, oil production in Non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 2,053 kb/d, a seemingly unrealistic forecast. According to the STEO, the major contributors to the increase are expected to be the US, close to 600 kb/d and Canada close to 700 kb/d, both estimates considered to be on the high side.
April Non-OPEC W/O US production dropped by 314 kb/d to 38,372 kb/d. May production is projected to increase by 108 kb/d.
From May 2023 to December 2024, production in Non-OPEC countries W/O the US is expected to increase by 1,356 kb/d.
Note that December 2024 output exceeds the pre-covid high of 39,552 kb/d in January 2020 by 284 kb/d.
Non-OPEC Oil Production Ranked by Country
Listed above are the World’s 10 largest Non-OPEC producers. The criteria for inclusion in the table is that all of the countries produce more than 1,000 kb/d.
April’s production drop for these ten Non-OPEC countries was 401 kb/d while as a whole the Non-OPEC countries saw a production decrease of 407 kb/d. The top 4 producers had a combined output drop of 463 kb/d.
In April 2023, these 10 countries produced 83.5% of Non-OPEC oil production.
OPEC’s C + C production decreased by 26 kb/d in April while YoY it increased by 142 kb/d . World MoM production decreased by 433 kb/d while YoY output increased by 2,093 kb/d.
Non-OPEC Oil Production Charts
The EIA reported that Brazil’s production increased by 57 kb/d in April to 3,172 kb/d.
Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that output in May and June increased and that June increased by 166 kb/d to 3,367 kb/d mainly due to new project start-ups, a new record high, red markers.
Much of Brazil’s upcoming 2023 production growth of close to 100 kb/d will come from the highly productive pre-salt fields. From April 2022 to April 2023, production from the pre-salt fields increased by 173 kb/d.
According to the April 2023 IEA Oil Market Report: “We forecast supply to reach a new record high of 3.42 mb/d this year, up 300 kb/d y-o-y, as platform maintenance returns to normal scheduling and five additional FPSOs come online. “
According to the August OPEC MOMR: “ Two new FPSOs started production during May, with Petrobras pumping the first oil from the FPSO Anna Nery installed at the Marlim complex in the offshore Campos Basin. According to Petrobras, the Buzios subsalt fields also received its fifth production unit, with the FPSO Almirante Barroso. Petrobras’ oil output fell by around 0.6% in the 2Q23 y-o-y due to losses from maintenance, in addition to the natural decline of mature oil fields and some asset sales. However, the crude oil output is expected to be supported by offshore start-ups announced at the beginning of the year.”
According to the EIA, Canada’s production declined by 187 kb/d in April to 4,446 kb/d. The May drop to 4,351 kb/d, along with April’s was due to significant maintenance at the oil sands mines and upgraders. The STEO is forecasting a production rebound in June to 4,480 kb/d.
According to the OPEC July MOMR : “Scheduled maintenance programmes during 2Q23 and 3Q23 are expected to soften output. It is the oil sands that are projected to be the main driver of Canada’s production through to the end of the year, driven by Kearl debottlenecking and CNRL (Canadian Natural Resources) Horizon optimization. Additionally, the Terra Nova Floating Production Storage and Offloading unit (FPSO) is expected to restart production in mid-2023.
This chart shows the post-pandemic trend in bitumen production in Alberta and the data is provided by the Canada Energy Regulator . Production in April and May 2023 was affected by severe weather and plant maintenance. On average, total production has been increasing at a rate of 3.76 kb/d/mth, brown OLS. Looking at the two different extraction methods, it appears that In Situ is slowly increasing while mined bitumen is holding steady.
According to the OPEC August MOMR report: Crude bitumen production output fell m-o-m by 259 tb/d, and synthetic crude declined m-o-m by 125 tb/d. Taken together, crude bitumen and synthetic crude production dropped by 384 tb/d to 2.5 mb/d.
The EIA reported China oil output in April dropped by 73 kb/d to 4,210 kb/d.
The China National Bureau of Statistics reported that production during May increased to 4,256 kb/d.
While China’s production growth has risen steadily since 2018, it may be approaching its post-pandemic high.
According to the OPEC July MOMR: “Natural decline rates are expected to be offset by additional growth through more infill wells and EOR projects amid efforts by state-owned oil companies to safeguard energy supplies.
For 2024 , Chinese liquid production is expected to remain steady y-o-y and is forecast to average 4.6 m/d. For next year, Liuhua 11-1, Shayan and Liuhua 4-1 (redevelopment) are planned to come on stream under CNOOC and PetroChina. At the same time, the main ramp-ups are expected from the Changqing, Kenli 10-2, Wushi 17-2 and Kenli 6-4.”
According to this source : From the low point in 2018 to the peak in 2023, China has added more than 600,000 barrels a day of extra production – more crude than some OPEC+ nations generate daily. Pumping about 4.3 million barrels a day now, China is again the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, only behind the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Canada, and ahead of Iraq.
According to the EIA, Kazakhstan’s output increased by 2 kb/d in April to 1,905 kb/d. The STEO is forecasting a production drop to 1,809 kb/d in May and holding steady in June at 1,809 kb/d.
Mexico’s production in April was 1,964 kb/d an increase of 29 kb/d over March. Output dropped to 1,959 kb/d in May and June, according to Pemex.
Mexico has recently revised its definition of condensate. This has resulted in the EIA adding an extra 60 kb/d, on average, to the Pemex report. The red markers include the additional 60 kb/d.
The EIA reported Norway’s April’s production to be 1,827 kb/d. The Norway Petroleum Directorate ((NPD)) reported that May’s production dropped to 1,781 kb/d and then rebounded to 1,818 kb/d in June. (Red markers).
According to the NPD : “Oil production in June was 0.6 percent more than the NPD’s forecast and 0.5 percent lower than the forecast so far this year.”
According to this source : “The North Sea’s biggest oil field Johan Sverdrup now has the capacity to produce as much as 755,000 b/d of crude.”
Oman’s production has risen very consistently since the low of May 2020. Oman’s April output was essentially flat but dropped to 1,043 kb/d in May.
Qatar’s April output was unchanged at 1,322 kb/d, possibly due to lack of updated information.
The EIA reported Russia’s April production was 10,077 kb/d. Using data from the August STEO report, Russian output is expected to drop to 9,901 kb/d in May 2023.
Using data from Argus Media , Russian production, as previously reported by the Energy Ministry, was estimated for April and May. For April and May, Argus reported that Russian production of crude was 9,730 kb/d and 9,500 kb/d, respectively. May production is available here . Using information from this S & P Global article, Russian condensate production is close to 8% of crude production. Adding the 8% to the crude production for April and May results in C + C production of 10,508 kb/d and 10,260 kb/d, respectively.
“Vienna — Russia’s condensate production averaged 833,000 b/d in November, energy minister Alexander Novak said Friday.
Stripping the November figure out from Russia’s previously reported oil output data shows that crude production was 10.41 million b/d in the month.
Russia is seeking to exclude its condensate volumes from its production quota under a supply cut agreement with OPEC and nine other allies, which the coalition will attempt to finalize Friday in Vienna.”
In the past when information was directly available from the Russian Ministry of Energy, the difference between the Russian Ministry and EIA was 404 kb/d higher. Comparing the two independent estimates above, Russian April output is 431 kb/d higher while May is 359 kb/d higher. Use of the Argus data provides production rates reasonably consistent with the EIA estimates.
U.S. May oil production decreased by 15 kb/d to 12,662 kb/d, a small change, primarily due to the upward revision of April output from 12,615 kb/d to 12,677 kb/d.
The dark blue graph, taken from the August 2023 STEO, is the forecast for U.S. oil production from June 2023 to December 2024. Output for December 2024 is expected to be 13,359 kb/d which is 359 kb/d higher than the November 2019 peak of 13,000 kb/d. Note the difference between the August and July STEO forecasts for US oil production. The August forecast is between 125 kb/d and 350 kb/d higher than reported in the July STEO forecast.
While overall US oil production decreased by 15 kb/d in May, the Onshore L48 had a production increase of 19 kb/d to 10,527 kb/d. The light blue graph is the STEO projection for output to December 2024 for the Onshore L48 .
These six countries complete the list of Non-OPEC countries with annual production between 500 kb/d and 1,000 kb/d. Note that the UK has been added to this list since its production has been below 1,000 kb/d since 2020.
Their combined April production was 3,891 kb/d, up 44 kb/d from March.
The overall output from the above six countries has been in a slow steady decline since 2014 and appears to have accelerated after 2019.
World Oil Production Ranked by Country
Above are listed the World’s 12th largest oil producers. In January 2022, these 12 countries produced 76.8% of the world’s oil. On a MoM basis, production decreased by 413 kb/d while on a YoY basis, production increased by 2,133 kb/d.
World oil production decreased by 433 kb/d in April. The largest decreases came from Iraq, 210 kb/d and Canada, 187 kb/d while Saudi Arabia added 350 kb/d.
World Oil Production Projection
World oil production in April decreased by 433 kb/d to 81,784 kb/d.(Green graph).
This chart also projects World C + C production out to December 2024. It uses the August 2023 STEO report along with the International Energy Statistics to make the projection. (Red markers).
The red graph forecasts that World crude production in December 2024 will be 83,432 kb/d and is 1,151 kb/d lower than the November 2018 peak. Note the large increase to 82,028 kb/d in October 2023 . This could be due to Saudi Arabia reversing part of its September 2023 1,000 kb/d cut.
World without the US oil output in April decreased by 340 kb/d to 69,107 kb/d. May’s output is expected to decrease by close to another 416 kb/d to 68,691 kb/d. December 2024 output of 70,072 kb/d is 2,719 kb/d lower than October 2018 output of 72,791 kb/d.
World oil production W/O the U.S. from April 2022 to December 2024 is forecast to increase by a total of 965 kb/d.
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
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April Non-OPEC And World Oil Production Drops