SPTS - Are 'Normal' Yield Curves Actually Normal?
The US yield curve usually slopes upward. Hence, positively sloped yield curves are termed "normal" and negatively sloped yield curves are termed "inverted". But are “normal” yield curves actually normal?
The US business cycle has an unusual feature, an absence of soft landings. A soft landing is when unemployment recovers to the natural rate, and then stays low for at least four years. The only plausible example is 1966-69, but that wasn’t really a soft landing, because it came at the expense of rapidly accelerating inflation. The plane soared off into the stratosphere before the