SPTS - Are We Really About To See Another Inflation Spike?

2024-07-01 14:55:00 ET

Summary

• It appears increasingly clear a return to 2% inflation is an unlikely outcome anytime soon.
• Headline inflation looks to have bottomed, while the stickier services-heavy inflation measures below are slowly but surely losing downside momentum.
• What has driven most of the move lower in inflation has been a swift decline in goods inflation to such an extent Goods CPI has been in outright deflation for months now.

The current inflation picture

The past 18 months have seen a lot of positive developments on the inflation front. But, it appears increasingly clear a return to 2% inflation is an unlikely outcome anytime soon. Though I do not believe another material upside move in inflation is likely to unfold this year, US inflation looks set to bottom at a structurally higher low than we have seen at any point over the past couple of decades.

Headline inflation looks to have bottomed, while the stickier services-heavy inflation measures below are slowly but surely losing downside momentum....

For further details see: