BSJT - Are We There Yet? (AKA: Is The Bottom In?)

• The primary concern for the public is by far inflation, not recession risk, and not the risk of a bear market in stocks given news headlines as a gauge of importance.
• The prior tightening seen in financial markets (10-yr UST yield jump) will likely weigh on future growth as measured by the ISM New Orders Index well into the early part of 2023.
• We may be in store for an oversold relief rally, but I think it remains premature to say we have hit the bottom as there is no clear indication we are at the max pain threshold for the Fed to intervene and believe investors still need to remain in a defensive posture.

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