ARVN - Arvinas: Hugely Important Data Catalyst Upcoming - Success May Prove Elusive

2024-07-12 18:25:44 ET

Summary

• Arvinas utilizes PROTAC technology to develop protein degraders, with vepdegestrant as a lead drug candidate in Phase 3 studies.
• Vepdegestrat will read out data from a large, late-stage study in breast cancer patients this year - a major catalyst to look out for.
• Data shared to date has been somewhat unconvincing and from small subsets - to secure approval, the drug will need to meet an endpoint of progression-free survival.
• The drug is also being tested in a Phase 3 study alongside Pfizer's Ibrance - some early promising data is not a cast iron guarantee of success.
• I'm a little lukewarm on Vepdegestrat's prospects and am downgrading my former "buy" rating to hold.

Investment Overview

I gave Arvinas, Inc. ( ARVN ) a "buy" recommendation back in November 2023 when its stock traded at ~$22 per share - a successful call, as it turns out, as they trade at ~$29 today, a gain of nearly 35%.

Less successfully, I reiterated my buy recommendation in a note written in April this year covering Arvinas' deal with Novartis AG (NVS) to co-develop one of its drug candidates, ARV-766, directed against prostate cancer. At that time shares were priced at $37 per share, having risen as high as $45 per share in February....

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