TWTR - As Twitter shareholders prepare to vote on Musk's acquisition endgame scenarios emerge

With the trial between Elon Musk and Twitter ( NYSE: TWTR ) over the Tesla ( TSLA ) chief executive's efforts to get out of his $44B acquisition of the social-media giant just a little more than a month away, Twitter ( TWTR ) shareholders are set to cast their votes on the potentially landmark deal.

Twitter ( TWTR ) will hold a meeting on Tuesday at which its shareholders are expected to give an overwhelming thumbs up to the deal which Musk originally agrees to in April, and which he sought to get out of just a few weeks later. A trial in Delaware Chancery Court over holding Musk to the original terms of his acquisition is set to start on October 17.

But, between now and then, speculation over just how the drama might play out is only likely to grow. And Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said Monday that there remains "a high possibility" that some form of negotiated settlement will happen to resolve the matter before the parties end up in a courtroom.

"Once both parties step into court it's a high risk/high reward scenario for both parties," Ives said, adding that the "major X variable" will be the whistleblower claims of former Twitter ( TWTR ) security chief Peiter "Mudge" Zatko. Last week, it was reported that Twitter ( TWTR ) reached a $7M settlement with Zatko .

"Up until the Zatko development, the Street was factoring in Twitter to have a clear win in the Delaware Courts in October," Ives said. "There are a range of possibilities that can come from the Delaware court."

Ives estimates there are four potential outcomes for the dispute between Twitter ( TWTR ) and Musk. Among those are that Musk pays a $1B breakup fee, and he and Twitter ( TWTR ) just go their separate ways. Ives said that in the eyes of Wall Street, this option has a "low likelihood" of happening.

An even lower likelihood, in Ives opinion, is that Musk wins the case and ends up having to pay no breakup fee at all.

There are two scenarios that Ives said have a "high likelihood" of playing out. One of those is that the court rules against Musk and requires him to pay "significant damages" to Twitter ( TWTR ) ranging from $5B to $10B. The other is the court upholds the "specific performance" guidelines of the deal and that Musk needs to buy Twitter ( TWTR ) at the agreed-upon price of $44B, or $54.20 a share.

While Twitter ( TWTR ) shareholders will be busy voting on the deal, Zatko is scheduled to testify before the U.S. Senate about alleged security failures at Twitter ( TWTR ) related the fake account-bot issue that is at the core of Musk's attempts to scotch the deal.

Twitter ( TWTR ) stock fell 1.7% Monday, to close the day at $41.48 a share. Earlier in the day, Twitter ( TWTR ) said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that Musk's claims to have the deal cancelled are "invalid."

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