ASML - ASML Earnings Preview: Cyclical Recovery Strong Demand And Sanction Risks

2024-04-05 10:57:34 ET

Summary

• ASML entered 2024 with strong momentum off the back of record Chinese demand to front-run US sanctions.
• End market inventory levels and fab utilization rates are recovering, stoking strong demand for ASML.
• Geopolitical tensions and a potential Taiwan conflict present material risk, but ASML currently looks to be fairly valued.

Earnings Preview: FY Q1 2024

Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography Holding NV, colloquially known as ASML ( ASML ), is entering the April earnings season with strong momentum. The company beat sales and gross margin guidance in the Q4 report and recorded 30% YoY revenue growth.

Meanwhile, management did not guide for full year 2024 sales growth. Instead, the company expects 2024 sales to match the 2023 figure of $30b, with Q1 sales of $5.5b-$6b with 48%-49% gross margin. The company did not provide EPS guidance for Q1 or FY 2024....

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