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Here are the monthly inflation updates. It will be interesting to see if the Fed treats 2% as a symmetrical target or a ceiling. There might be an argument for treating it as a ceiling at this point in the business cycle, because employment is so strong. But employment is a lagging indicator. At this point, I think the Fed has reduced the potential of worst case scenarios, but I don't think they will loosen up monetary policy aggressively enough to avoid a bit of a contraction. And the depth of the contraction mostly depends