WANT - August Retail Sales Surprise To The Upside Because They Were Down?

• The Census Bureau, on Thursday, released its estimates for retail sales. Most pay attention only to the seasonally adjusted version, which was surprisingly positive for August 2021.
• It was widely expected sales would continue to fade, another monthly move downward nonetheless as the last Uncle Sam helicopter likewise fades on the calendar.
• What the Census does is try to translate what the “normal” increase from July to August must be, and then compare the unadjusted current data to that estimate to come up with the seasonally adjusted figure. Since these are atypical times, the data may be easily confused.

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