BBVA - BBVA Research economic analysis indicates stronger growth after 4Q20 slowdown

- PCE increased 2.5 percent: Personal consumption expenditures rose by 2.5 percent but contracted in November and December.

- Increased uncertainty: Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased significantly.

- GDP growth: GDP growth in 2021 could reach its highest rate in nearly 40 years.

PR Newswire

HOUSTON , Feb. 2, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- In an economic analysis published by BBVA Research , the team's lead economists report that the economy continued to expand in the fourth quarter of 2020, though at a much slower pace. According to the analysis, this pace reflected both solid ongoing momentum and the negative consequences of lower fiscal support and rising COVID-19 cases.

The report, published by BBVA Chief Economist Nathaniel Karp and Senior Economist Boyd Nash-Stacey , notes that real GDP increased 4 percent, according to estimates from the BEA, slightly higher than the group's forecast but significantly lower than the third quarter GDP of 33.4 percent.

The report further indicates that the stable economic performance of 4Q20 reflected a strong contribution from private investment, particularly residential, equipment, intellectual property and inventories. This mirrors the uptick in business expectations after the strong recovery during 3Q20 and the need for inventory build-up.

In addition to providing a detailed review of GDP performance in 2020, the BBVA Research report also offers a number of possible estimates resulting from possible government support packages under consideration. The analysis concludes that the fiscal response during the pandemic, unlike the Global Financial Crisis, has been timely, forceful and effective. This has put the U.S. economy in an enviable position, one that if managed correctly could cement U.S. hegemony and ensure long-term sustainability

BBVA USA's research team analyzes the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. For its analyses, the economists create models and forecasts for growth, inflation, monetary policy and industries. The Economic Research team also follows a variety of issues that affect the Sunbelt states where BBVA USA operates. Follow their work on Twitter @BBVAResearch and @BBVANews_USA .

Read the full report here .

See the complete library of BBVA Research publications here .

For more BBVA news visit, www.bbva.com and the U.S. Newsroom .

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For more financial information about BBVA in the U.S., visit bbvausa.investorroom.com .

BBVA Group
BBVA (NYSE: BBVA) is a customer-centric global financial services group founded in 1857. The Group has a strong leadership position in the Spanish market, is the largest financial institution in Mexico , it has leading franchises in South America and the Sunbelt Region of the United States . It is also the leading shareholder in Turkey's Garanti BBVA. Its purpose is to bring the age of opportunities to everyone, based on our customers' real needs: provide the best solutions, helping them make the best financial decisions, through an easy and convenient experience. The institution rests in solid values: Customer comes first, we think big and we are one team. Its responsible banking model aspires to achieve a more inclusive and sustainable society.

BBVA USA
In the U.S., BBVA is a Sunbelt-based financial institution that operates 641 branches, including 330 in Texas , 89 in Alabama , 63 in Arizona , 61 in California , 44 in Florida , 37 in Colorado and 17 in New Mexico . The bank ranks among the top 25 largest U.S. commercial banks based on deposit market share and ranks among the largest banks in Alabama (2nd), Texas (4th) and Arizona (6th). In the U.S., BBVA has been recognized as one of the leading small business lenders by the Small Business Administration (SBA) and ranked 8th nationally in terms of dollar volume of SBA loans originated in fiscal year 2018.

SOURCE BBVA USA