TPLC - Belated March CPI Analysis

2024-04-19 02:15:00 ET

Summary

• The March CPI release was, in retrospect, the one that apparently convinced the Fed and the market that "disinflation has stalled."
• "Higher for longer" is now the interest rate mantra that is driving the market; it's made people nervous, so an equity market correction is underway.
• You won't be surprised to learn that I disagree. I still think the great inflation bubble that started three years ago has long since popped.

I've only recently returned from several weeks in Argentina. I didn't have access to my charts, and besides, I was rather more interested in people, food, and wine than in blogging. Time now to catch up on the market's latest focus: Is inflation still stubbornly high? Does the Fed need to tighten more?...

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