USMC - Beneath The Skin Of April CPI Inflation: 6-Month Core CPI Hits 4% 6-Month Core Services CPI Hits 6% Both Highest Since Mid-2023

2024-05-16 07:20:00 ET

Summary

• After months of worsening data on CPI inflation, we got still bad, but less bad, data today for April by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Core services CPI, which accounts for about 60% of total CPI, increased by 5.3% YoY in April, roughly the same hot pace for the seventh month in a row.
• Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, decelerated a tad to a 3.6% pace, slowed by the sharp drop in durable goods.

Month-to-month data is volatile. We'll look at the trends.

After months of worsening data on CPI inflation, we got still bad, but less bad, data today for April by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And perhaps it was just another month-to-month squiggle, to be turned around over the next few months, of which we had many. Or perhaps it was a change in trend.

We'll get to the details in a moment. But in summary, on a year-over-year basis:

Core services CPI - which accounts for about 60% of total CPI - increased by 5.3% year-over-year in April, roughly the same hot pace for the seventh month in a row, and seems to have gotten stuck there (red line)....

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