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Stocks rallied significantly in the fourth quarter, and seasonality suggests there may be additional upside, but there's also an extreme number of stocks trading at least 5% above their 200-day moving average, and Middle East saber-rattling could cause uncertainty that leads to investors derisking portfolios.
As of this week, 47.15% of the 1,400 stocks in our research are trading 5% or more above their 200 dma - the highest reading since the blow-off rally in the first two months of 2018. That's worrisome.
Source: Limelight Alpha.
However, retirement contributions and portfolio rebalancing usually propel indexes