EMHC - Beta-Bucket Update: Positive Long Term But Short-Term Headwinds

• Uncertainty has increased due to Russian-Ukrainian tensions, which raise concerns about a potential military escalation by Russia.
• We believe Turkey’s unorthodox economic policy mix has caused a rapid depreciation of the lira and elevated inflation.
• Mixed prospects for the external sector performance, relatively tight valuations, and a troubling fiscal outlook continue to underpin our negative fundamental view of South Africa.
• While it is impossible to predict the endgame of Russian tensions with Ukraine, we do not believe that current spread levels compensate investors for the uncertainty around a potentially negative outcome.

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