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The CRB commodity price index (39% fossil fuels and 41% agriculture) has leapt 25% since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th and is up 38% year-to-date.
The cost of living shock is big amid negative real wage gains and a freakish jump in shelter expense over the past two years.
Bonds have preempted policymakers, as usual, selling off sharply in March to price in aspirations for a funds rate above 2% even as the yield curve sees the escalating downturn.