QVMS - BLS: We'll Smooth The Payroll Data; ADP: Hold My Beer

• When the BLS revised (benchmarks) its CES (Establishment Survey) last month, you could at least understand the purpose and the underlying theory, even if you never fully agree with the reasons why the government says short-run employment changes must be largely free from large variations.
• In 2021, though, the BLS shifted some of the larger increases mid-year and shoved them into the smaller gains which had been figured for more recent months. The result was a much smoother trend, yet one that didn’t change about where the employment situation actually ends up.
• Just last month, ADP believed the private economy had lost about 300,000 payrolls. As of today, that’s gone and in its place a 500,000 gain; or an incredible revision of 800,000 for just January 2022.
• ADP wasn’t smoothing data by taking gains from mid-year last year topuff up some of the lesser months closer to now, including January’s bigminus. On the contrary, it just erased all the low months over the past twoyears.

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